YANGYUAN(SH:603156) Soochow Securities·2024-10-27 10:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.23 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 18.8%, with a net profit of 199 million yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year [2] - The main business revenue in Q3 2024 was 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, with the walnut milk product continuing its downward trend due to a weak consumption environment [2] - Functional beverages showed a growth of 25% to 30% year-on-year in Q3, with the company maintaining its annual growth expectation of 30% for this segment [2] - The gross profit margin remained stable at 45.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue for 2022 was 5.923 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.24%. For 2023, the revenue was 6.162 billion yuan, showing a growth of 4.03%. The forecast for 2024 is 5.665 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.07% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 1.474 billion yuan, down 30.16% year-on-year. For 2023, it was 1.467 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.46%. The forecast for 2024 is 1.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.60% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 1.16 yuan per share, with forecasts of 1.14 yuan for 2024, 1.24 yuan for 2025, and 1.37 yuan for 2026 [1] - The current P/E ratio is 19.23 for 2024, 17.67 for 2025, and 16.03 for 2026 [1] Investment Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been slightly adjusted to 1.44 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2%, +9%, and +10% [2]