轻工纺服行业周报：美国大选“白热化”，关注四季度出海机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the intensifying U.S. presidential election and suggests focusing on overseas opportunities in the fourth quarter [1] - The support rates for candidates Harris and Trump are nearly equal, indicating a competitive election environment [1][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas capacity expansion for companies in response to trade tensions with the U.S. [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - The U.S. presidential election is heating up, with a focus on overseas opportunities in Q4 [1] Weekly Market Review - From October 21 to October 25, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.00% [25] - The light industry manufacturing sector increased by 6.96%, ranking 3rd among 31 sectors, while the textile and apparel sector rose by 4.38%, ranking 10th [25] Key Data Tracking Home Furnishing Data - From October 13 to October 20, 2024, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 2.6564 million square meters, a 21.63% increase month-on-month [2] - In the first nine months of 2024, the new construction area of residential buildings was 407 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% [2] Packaging and Paper Data - As of October 25, 2024, the prices for various paper products showed slight declines, with needle leaf pulp priced at 6213.39 yuan/ton [2] - The gross profit per ton for double copper paper was -22.12 yuan/ton as of October 24, 2024 [2] Textile and Apparel Data - As of October 25, 2024, the cotton price index in China was 15509 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.51% [5] - In September 2024, retail sales of clothing and textiles were 116.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [5] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report suggests focusing on stable companies and high-growth smart home segments due to current valuation discounts [5] - In the paper industry, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with diversified products and integrated operations as profitability is expected to recover [5] - The report advises monitoring leading companies in the packaging sector, especially if the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is successful, which would increase industry concentration [5] - Despite short-term concerns over export chains due to election uncertainties, leading companies are expected to enhance their overseas production capabilities to mitigate tariff risks [5]