农林牧渔行业周报:生猪价格周环比上涨,宠物食品板块三季报亮眼
Huaan Securities·2024-10-27 11:43

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a 1.4% week-on-week increase in live pig prices, with a continued rebound in piglet prices. The national average price for live pigs is 17.53 yuan per kilogram [1][2] - The report indicates a cautious breeding enthusiasm, with the average weight of pigs at 126.07 kg, a decrease of 0.27 kg week-on-week, but an increase of 4.08 kg compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - The report predicts a slow recovery in production capacity, with a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, suggesting that pig prices in 2025 will only slightly decline compared to 2024 [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.98% in the week from October 21 to October 25, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [11] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Primary Agricultural Products - Corn spot price is 2247.16 yuan per ton, down 0.06% week-on-week, and down 17.09% year-on-year. Soybean spot price is 4003.68 yuan per ton, up 0.63% week-on-week, and down 19.35% year-on-year [26] - The report notes that the global corn and wheat stock-to-use ratios are at their lowest levels in years, indicating potential supply constraints [2] 2.2 Livestock - The report details a significant increase in the issuance of pig vaccines in September 2024, with the highest growth seen in the pig parvovirus vaccine at 141.2% year-on-year [2] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the pet food sector, with exports increasing by 25.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, driven by rising overseas demand and domestic brand growth [2] - The report suggests continued optimism for the pet food sector, recommending attention to leading domestic companies such as Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co. [2]