Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the airline and oil transportation sectors [2]. Core Views - The airline sector is expected to see a recovery in supply and demand as the winter season approaches, with airlines potentially improving their revenue strategies. It is recommended to take a contrarian approach during the off-peak season [3]. - In the oil transportation sector, expectations for increased crude oil production are rising, suggesting a contrarian investment strategy. The report emphasizes that the increase in crude oil production will benefit oil transportation [3]. Summary by Sections Airline Sector - The airline revenue strategies are cautious as the summer season transitions to winter. The industry’s passenger load factor in Q3 was higher than in 2019, with September showing an increase of nearly 2 percentage points compared to the same month in 2019, despite a significant drop in ticket prices [3]. - Recent observations indicate slight improvements in airlines' revenue management strategies, with a minor decrease in load factors and a rebound in ticket prices. The upcoming winter season may further enhance revenue strategies [3]. - The supply-demand balance in the airline industry is gradually recovering, with international flights increasing. The report anticipates a boost in consumer spending, which could accelerate this recovery [3]. - The report suggests maintaining "Overweight" positions in China National Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [3]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation market is currently experiencing stable freight rates, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE around $35,000 per day and the MR TCE for the new Australia route at approximately $16,000 per day [3]. - The report predicts that the oil transportation market will face pressure in Q3 2024, with expectations of a 21% year-on-year increase in Q3 earnings for China Merchants Energy, while China Merchants Jinling's Q3 earnings are expected to decline by about 20% year-on-year [3]. - The report reiterates that the anticipated increase in global crude oil demand and production will favor the oil transportation sector, recommending a contrarian approach during peak seasons and maintaining "Overweight" positions in China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Jinling, China Merchants Shipping, and China Ship Leasing [3]. - Observations of charter rates and second-hand ship prices indicate a generally optimistic medium-term outlook for the industry, with charter rates remaining stable and second-hand prices for ships aged 5-10 years continuing to rise [3].
国君交运周观察：航司收益策略改善，布局油运增产预期
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 12:14