Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a "Strong Buy" rating, outperforming the market [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are stabilizing and rebounding, with a focus on companies that exceed expectations in their Q3 reports. The overall coal sector remains a positive investment opportunity, particularly under supportive policies [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The coal index increased by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.79%, indicating that the coal index underperformed the broader market by 0.47 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has surged by 6.28%, compared to a 15.31% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, showing a 9.04 percentage point underperformance [10]. 2. Thermal Coal - As of October 25, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 855 CNY/ton, up 15 CNY/ton week-on-week, reflecting a 1.8% increase. The price is down 121 CNY/ton year-on-year, a decline of 12.4% [22]. - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions is 83.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [31]. - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal remains resilient, supported by seasonal heating needs as temperatures drop in northern regions [2]. 3. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port is 1760 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1850 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 50 CNY/ton [2]. - The report suggests that despite entering a seasonal lull in demand, macroeconomic policies are improving, which may support coking coal prices [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests looking at companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, such as Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [2].
煤炭:动力煤企稳反弹,关注三季报超预期标的
Huafu Securities·2024-10-27 12:33