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汽车行业周报：特斯拉产业链预期有望逐步修正
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 12:49

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][5]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with profitability gradually recovering and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology being iterated in the U.S. and gradually advancing in China. If Trump is re-elected, Tesla may benefit from favorable policies [2][4]. - Market risk appetite remains high, with smart driving and robotics being key focus areas in the automotive sector. Recommended stocks include Jianghuai Automobile, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto for complete vehicles, and Xingyu Co., Kobot, Desay SV, and Huayang Group for intelligent technology [4][5]. - The introduction of low-cost models and advancements in autonomous driving technology are expected to drive Tesla's vehicle production and sales growth by 20-30% in 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Tesla supply chain is expected to gradually adjust. The automotive sector is projected to maintain high growth due to effective vehicle replacement subsidy policies, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.264 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in demand for mid-range vehicles, with significant orders in the 100,000 to 150,000 price range. The demand for high-end self-owned brands is also expected to increase, enhancing sector valuations [4][5]. Key Company Metrics - Recommended stocks and their respective metrics include: - Jianghuai Automobile: PE 162.0 for 2024E, EPS 0.2 [6] - BYD: PE 25.8 for 2024E, EPS 12.0 [6] - Changan Automobile: PE 17.7 for 2024E, EPS 0.8 [6] - Great Wall Motors: PE 22.4 for 2024E, EPS 1.2 [6] - Li Auto: PE 18.7 for 2024E, EPS 6.0 [6] - Xingyu Co.: PE 27.7 for 2024E, EPS 5.4 [6] - Desay SV: PE 33.4 for 2024E, EPS 3.6 [6] - Huayang Group: PE 25.7 for 2024E, EPS 1.2 [6] - Top Group: PE 27.3 for 2024E, EPS 1.7 [6]