Guoxin Securities·2024-10-27 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) [2][5][11] Core Views - The coal business shows enhanced profitability and the company's leading advantages are becoming more evident. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 858.2 billion yuan (+3.4%) and a net profit of 165.7 billion yuan (+10.5%) [2][6][11] - The report highlights stable production and sales volumes in coal, with significant gross profit increases due to optimized sales structure and reduced costs. The gross profit for the coal segment in Q3 2024 reached 20.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [2][8][11] - The electricity segment experienced growth in both generation and sales, with Q3 2024 generation and sales volumes increasing by 14.4% and 14.9% respectively. The segment's profit was 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting a seasonal improvement [2][11] - The transportation segment showed stable operations, with railway and port profits declining while shipping profits increased significantly [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 253.9 billion yuan (+0.6%) and a net profit of 46.07 billion yuan (-4.6%). The Q3 2024 results were particularly strong, with revenue of 85.82 billion yuan and net profit of 16.57 billion yuan [2][6][11] - The report projects an upward revision of profit forecasts, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at 61.2 billion, 62.9 billion, and 63.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's profitability [2][11] Coal Segment - In Q3 2024, the company produced 81.2 million tons of coal, with sales reaching 115.6 million tons. The average selling prices for self-produced and purchased coal were 528 yuan/ton and 635 yuan/ton respectively [2][8][11] - The report notes a decrease in production costs, with the unit production cost for self-produced coal at 176 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton year-on-year [2][8][11] Electricity Segment - The average selling price for electricity in Q3 2024 was 395 yuan/MWh, down 4.4% year-on-year. The segment's gross profit margin was 15.8%, showing a seasonal improvement [2][11] Transportation Segment - Revenue from the transportation segment for the first three quarters was 327 billion yuan for railways, 51 billion yuan for ports, and 38 billion yuan for shipping, with shipping profits increasing by 205% year-on-year [2][11]