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铝行业周报：铝价震荡，氧化铝继续上扬，关注需求变化
Guohai Securities·2024-10-27 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing fluctuations while alumina prices continue to rise, indicating a need to monitor demand changes [1] - Domestic policies are continuously supportive, and current demand is strong, with good inventory reduction for aluminum ingots and bars [9] - The supply of bauxite remains tight, particularly due to disruptions in Guinea, which is driving up alumina prices [9] Price Summary - As of October 25, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2670.0 per ton, up $56.5 from the previous week, marking a 2.2% increase week-on-week and a 21.0% increase year-on-year [16] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20760.0 CNY per ton, up 120.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 0.6% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [16] Production Summary - As of October 25, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 836,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous week and a 1.5% increase year-on-year [35] - The weekly production of alumina is 1,637,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous week but up 3.5% year-on-year [35] Import and Export Summary - In September, China's net imports of primary aluminum decreased by 15.3% month-on-month to 126,000 tons, with expectations of maintaining imports around 100,000 to 130,000 tons [6] - The report indicates that alumina export windows are opening due to tight domestic supply and rising prices [7] Inventory Summary - As of October 24, domestic aluminum rod social inventory is 109,800 tons, down 16,500 tons from the previous week, indicating a positive supply-demand balance [6] - The report notes that the overall inventory situation is improving, with social stocks maintaining a downward trend [6] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.12 CNY for 2024 [3] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.91 CNY for 2024 [3] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.77 CNY for 2024 [3] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.16 CNY for 2024 [3] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.42 CNY for 2024 [3]