东海证券：晨会纪要-20241028

Group 1: Pet Food Industry - The pet food market in China is large and fragmented, with the market size reaching 279.3 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 3.22% from 2020's 206.5 billion yuan [6] - The market share of domestic pet food companies is increasing, with the top 10 companies in the US and Japan holding 76.10% and 85.30% market shares respectively, while China's top 10 only holds 31.30% [6] - The number of pets in China continues to rise, with a total of 122 million dogs and cats in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.29% [6] - The average annual consumption per pet is on the rise, with a CAGR of 8.32% for dogs and 0.94% for cats from 2020 to 2023, driven by rising disposable income and a trend towards premium pet food [6] - Pet food exports are also growing, with a volume of 25,600 tons and an export value of 12.4 million USD in September 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.47% and 11.04% respectively [6] - Investment opportunities are highlighted for companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as domestic brands are expected to benefit from the ongoing upgrade and growth in the pet food sector [6] Group 2: Swine Breeding Industry - The swine breeding industry is characterized by cyclical price changes influenced by supply and demand, with the current breeding capacity of sows at 40.62 million heads, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [8][9] - The recovery of breeding capacity is slow, and the current profit cycle may be extended due to various factors including disease, demand, and capital [9] - The industry has seen a significant increase in scale following the African swine fever outbreak, with large enterprises rapidly expanding their operations [8] - The current market conditions suggest that the fourth quarter will maintain a favorable price environment for pigs, with performance expected to improve gradually for swine companies [9] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Lihua Stock [9]