KINGLAI MATERIALS(300260) 东吴证券·2024-10-27 16:30Investment Rating - Buy (Upgraded) [1] Core Views - The company's performance continues to grow, with Q3 net profit under short-term pressure: In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The company's profitability remains high, with expense ratios flat year-on-year: In Q1-Q3 2024, the gross profit margin was 25.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 8.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [2] - Inventory and contract liabilities remain stable, with good cash flow collection: As of the end of Q3 2024, the company's contract liabilities were 138 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and inventory was 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The company is advancing domestic substitution in the semiconductor and food sectors, demonstrating growth potential: The company focuses on domestic substitution, with product R&D and capacity expansion in the semiconductor, food, and pharmaceutical sectors [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.620 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.744 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.1% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 344.79 million yuan in 2022 to 623.69 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.0% [1] - EPS is expected to increase from 0.85 yuan per share in 2022 to 1.53 yuan per share in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 29.31 in 2022 to 16.20 in 2026 [1] Industry and Market Data - The global semiconductor industry is recovering, with Q4 2023-Q2 2024 global semiconductor sales increasing by 11.6%, 15.2%, and 18.3% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is booming, with Q4 2023-Q1 2024 sales increasing by 90.8% and 113.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The domestic aseptic packaging market is expected to exceed 25 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth potential in the dairy and beverage sectors [3] - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 15.90 yuan and 39.00 yuan over the past year, with a current price of 25.41 yuan [5] Financial Statements and Key Metrics - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 4.350 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.787 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - The company's liabilities are expected to decrease from 2.563 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.662 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 13.25% in 2023 to 20.01% in 2026 [10] - The company's ROIC is expected to increase from 9.04% in 2023 to 16.49% in 2026 [10]