POP MART(09992) 高盛证券·2024-10-27 16:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported 3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's Labubu plush toy, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with 2026E revenue projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with 2026E EBITDA expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - EPS for 2024E is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with 2026E EPS projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a 25X P/E multiple (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - Mainland China sales by channel: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - Overseas sales accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - Gross profit margin (GPM) for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at 24X 2025E P/E, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights strong IP momentum and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]