Shanghai Friendess(688188) 东吴证券·2024-10-27 20:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company maintained rapid revenue growth in Q3 despite it being the off-season for laser cutting [2] - Other income dragged down profit performance [1] - High-power cutting control system demand remains strong, with intelligent cutting heads rapidly expanding and intelligent welding making breakthroughs, indicating continued high growth potential [2] - Smart welding industry trend is established, enabling the company to expand across fields and achieve boundaryless growth [4] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 13.01 billion yuan, up 31.19% YoY [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 7.26 billion yuan, up 26.84% YoY [2] - Q3 2024 revenue: 4.17 billion yuan, up 26.27% YoY [2] - Q3 2024 net profit: 2.35 billion yuan, up 11.63% YoY [2] - 2024E revenue: 18.57 billion yuan, up 32.00% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit: 9.76 billion yuan, up 33.87% YoY [1] Profitability - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin: 81.6%, up 1.2pct YoY [3] - Q1-Q3 2024 net margin: 59.4%, down 0.5pct YoY [3] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 82.4%, up 1.7pct YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net margin: 58.57%, down 5.0pct YoY [3] Expenses - Q1-Q3 2024 expense ratio: 21.14%, down 1.56pct YoY [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expenses changed by -0.25/+0.01/-3.17/+1.85pct YoY respectively [3] Industry and Market Trends - High-power cutting control system demand remains strong [2] - Intelligent cutting heads are rapidly expanding [2] - Intelligent welding is making breakthroughs [2] - Smart welding industry trend is established, with the company benefiting from partnerships with major steel structure clients [4] Valuation and Forecast - 2024E EPS: 4.75 yuan/share [1] - 2024E P/E: 41.64x [1] - 2025E EPS: 6.36 yuan/share [1] - 2025E P/E: 31.08x [1] - 2026E EPS: 8.15 yuan/share [1] - 2026E P/E: 24.28x [1] Market Data - Closing price: 197.78 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 135.79/340.94 yuan [6] - P/B: 7.73x [6] - Market cap: 40.63 billion yuan [6] Financial Position - Total assets: 5.34 billion yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 9.53 billion yuan by 2026E [10] - Total liabilities: 316 million yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 665 million yuan by 2026E [10] - Equity: 5.02 billion yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 8.87 billion yuan by 2026E [10] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow: 861 million yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 1.59 billion yuan by 2026E [11] - Investing cash flow: -364 million yuan (2023A), expected to turn positive by 2025E [11] - Financing cash flow: -167 million yuan (2023A), expected to improve to -60 million yuan by 2026E [11] Key Financial Ratios - ROIC: 14.23% (2023A), expected to grow to 18.36% by 2026E [11] - ROE: 14.66% (2023A), expected to grow to 19.20% by 2026E [11] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 5.93% (2023A), expected to increase to 6.98% by 2026E [11]