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政策有望持续加码,对后期需求不必悲观
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 23:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [4]. - Positive policies are expected to continue, alleviating concerns about future demand [7][9]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 8.938 million tons, a decrease of 1.88% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 7.54% [16]. - The production volume of steel reached 8.8058 million tons, an increase of 7.16% week-on-week [24]. - Total inventory of steel maintained a downward trend, with a total inventory of 12.5932 million tons, down 1.03% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices increased by 1.07% to 757.00 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices decreased by 2.49% to 1960 CNY/ton [31][32]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 153.4168 million tons, a 0.29% increase week-on-week [36]. Production and Profitability - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 82.14%, an increase of 0.46% week-on-week [19]. - The simulated profit for rebar production decreased to 271.8 CNY/ton, down 21.4 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased to 181.8 CNY/ton, up 18.6 CNY/ton [27][29]. Policy and Market Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the implementation of a package of incremental policies to stimulate demand, particularly in the automotive sector [9][10]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, reducing negative impacts on steel demand, while infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are projected to maintain steady growth [9][10].