Huachuang Securities·2024-10-27 23:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633) with a target price of 37.26 CNY and 17.91 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company's export structure continues to optimize, leading to an increase in average selling price (ASP) despite short-term fluctuations due to foreign exchange impacts [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 142.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 110% [1]. - The report highlights that the sales structure impacts gross profit, with an estimated foreign exchange loss of approximately 700 million CNY in the third quarter [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 173.2 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.1%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 192.6 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.2% growth [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 7.0 billion CNY, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 to 13.8 billion CNY, representing a 96.8% increase [2]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting net profits of 15.9 billion CNY in 2025 and 19.1 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 15.2% and 20.1% [2]. Key Performance Indicators - The ASP for the third quarter of 2024 is reported at 173,000 CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2,900 CNY [1]. - The gross margin for the third quarter is 20.8%, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. - The report indicates that the company’s export volume reached 324,000 units in the first nine months of 2024, accounting for 38% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [1].