顾家家居：核心品类呈现韧性，整家定制快速成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.81 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.36 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.89 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 460 million yuan, down 19.9% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic sales remain under pressure due to the downturn in the real estate market, while exports continue to grow. The report suggests that Q3 export revenue maintained the growth trend seen in the first half of the year, while domestic demand remains weak, showing no significant improvement from Q2 [1]. - Core product categories show resilience, with the custom furniture business growing rapidly. The sofa category benefited from increased revenue through foreign trade channels, while bedroom product sales faced pressure. The custom furniture segment maintained rapid growth from a low base, supported by product and store format optimization, enhancing competitiveness in the retail space [1]. - The company has controlled expense inputs, maintaining stable profitability. The gross margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 31.9%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 9.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a revenue growth rate of -1.06%. The net profit is expected to be 1.99 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of -0.34% [3]. - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.43 yuan, 2.51 yuan, and 2.72 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10X for 2024 and 2025, and 9X for 2026 [1][3].