CSEC,China Shenhua(SH:601088) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-28 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) [1][2][4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations due to improvements in both coal and electricity sectors [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 344.08 billion, 353.30 billion, and 358.87 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 63.52 billion, 65.09 billion, and 67.03 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 6% in 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 253.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 46.00 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year [1] - The average price of self-produced coal in Q3 was 579 yuan/ton, a decrease of 531 yuan/ton year-on-year [1] Coal Sector - The sales structure improved with a significant increase in long-term contracts, leading to a rise in overall sales prices [1] - The company's self-produced coal sales volume reached 3.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.91% [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 2.84% year-on-year [1] Electricity Sector - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 1681.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.68% [1] - The average selling price of electricity was 396.1 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 3.55% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit from electricity sales was 49.66 yuan/MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.99% [2] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 40.93 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8X for 2024, 12.5X for 2025, and 12.1X for 2026 [2][3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 3.20 yuan, 3.28 yuan, and 3.37 yuan respectively [2][3]