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工程机械行业动态跟踪：CME预测10月挖掘机国内销量同比增长18%，积极财政政策支撑工程机械需求
Huafu Securities·2024-10-28 00:30

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][8] Core Viewpoints - The report predicts a significant increase in domestic excavator sales, with an expected 18% year-on-year growth in October, reaching approximately 8,000 units. The total excavator sales for October, including exports, are estimated to be around 16,000 units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [2][3] - The report highlights the positive impact of proactive fiscal policies on engineering machinery demand, with a focus on the real estate sector's stabilization and infrastructure investment [3][4] - The domestic market is expected to benefit from a new round of equipment replacement cycles, supported by easing real estate policies and national large-scale replacement initiatives [2][4] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The report indicates that domestic demand is expected to recover, driven by equipment updates and environmental policies. In the first half of 2024, domestic excavator sales are projected to be 53,000 units, a 4.66% year-on-year increase, while exports are expected to decline by 13.8% [4] - The report anticipates that the demand for equipment replacement will gradually be released after 2025 due to the acceleration of old equipment replacement driven by subsidies and environmental policies [4] Export Market - The export value of China's engineering machinery in the first half of 2024 is projected to be $25.837 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.38%. The global market size is three times that of the domestic market, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by major players like Caterpillar and Komatsu [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding into overseas markets, particularly in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as domestic demand continues to improve and export markets show positive trends [4]