有色金属行业周报：供弱需强氧化铝持续上行，地缘局势升级凸显黄金避险属性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - Precious Metals: A global trend of monetary easing is emerging, with geopolitical tensions highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold. The Federal Reserve's significant rate cut of 50 basis points in September, along with similar actions from the European Central Bank and domestic LPR adjustments, signals a shift towards easing monetary policy. This environment is expected to drive demand for gold, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts [1][10]. - Industrial Metals: Short-term market expectations are fluctuating, but long-term upward trends remain intact. The Fed's rate cut has initiated a global easing cycle, supporting metal price increases. However, copper supply is constrained, and demand is softening as traditional consumption slows. Despite this, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive due to expected increases in investment and consumption [1][12]. - New Energy Metals: Spot prices are experiencing fluctuations, with futures showing slight rebounds influenced by macroeconomic factors. Lithium supply remains stable, but demand is cautious, leading to a need for price adjustments to achieve supply-demand balance [1][15]. - Other Minor Metals: The rare earth market is experiencing fluctuations, with supply chain disruptions from Myanmar affecting prices. The outlook for rare earths is cautiously optimistic, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics anticipated [1][16]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of monetary easing and geopolitical tensions driving gold demand. Key economic indicators show mixed results, but the overall sentiment favors gold as a safe-haven asset. Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold [1][10]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report notes that while short-term expectations for industrial metals are mixed, the long-term outlook remains positive. Copper supply is tight, and demand is softening, but the Fed's easing measures are expected to support prices. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [1][12][14]. 1.3 New Energy Metals - The report highlights the current volatility in new energy metal prices, particularly lithium. Supply remains stable, but demand is cautious, necessitating price adjustments for balance. Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co. and Tianqi Lithium [1][15]. 1.4 Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the rare earth market's fluctuations and the impact of supply chain disruptions. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics. Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth [1][16]. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Notable stock performances include Guangzhi Technology with an 82.70% increase and Fushun Special Steel with a 9.38% decrease [1][20]. Valuation - As of October 25, the non-ferrous metals industry has a PE ratio of 20.42, indicating relatively low valuations for copper and aluminum sectors, with potential for upward adjustments [1][24].