煤炭行业：宏观预期再度强化，冬储将临煤价易涨难跌

Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic expectations have strengthened again, leading to an anticipated rise in coal prices as winter storage approaches, making it easier for prices to increase than to decrease [10] - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the supply-side reform that has effectively reduced excess capacity, with a total of 1.1 billion tons of outdated capacity eliminated [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of buying leading companies with integrated assets and strong dividend attributes, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is in a high prosperity phase, driven by a supply-side reform that has significantly reduced excess capacity [9] - The demand for coal is expected to grow steadily, supported by national economic growth and the coal's role in the energy system [9][10] 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides various coal price indices, including the Qinhuangdao power coal price and the average price of Shanxi-produced coal, indicating fluctuations in prices [14] - As of October 25, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal is reported at 1,760.00 CNY/ton, down 150.00 CNY/ton from the previous week [14] 3. Industry Performance - The report tracks the operational performance of key companies, highlighting production and sales figures for major coal producers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [11][12][13] - For instance, China Shenhua reported a coal production of 26.6 million tons in September 2024, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [11] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and those likely to benefit from improving market conditions, particularly in the coking coal sector [10] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Huaihe Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [10]