美债收益率再次攀升背后：特朗普交易的回归？

Group 1 - The report highlights that U.S. Treasury yields have risen to approximately 4.3%, up 70 basis points from the previous month's low, reflecting strong economic fundamentals, an unavoidable increase in fiscal deficits, and the return of the "Trump trade" [1][6][7] - The strong reality of the U.S. economy is supported by better-than-expected economic data, including non-farm payrolls and retail sales, which have driven real interest rates from 1.58% to 1.93% [1][9][12] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit for FY2024 is projected to reach $1.833 trillion, with a deficit-to-GDP ratio exceeding 6% for the second consecutive year, leading to increased supply-side pressure on yields [1][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant differentiation in market pricing regarding Trump's potential policy mix, with risk assets reflecting optimism about economic growth while safe-haven assets show concern over policy uncertainty [2][17] - The current market may be overpricing Trump's chances of winning the election, which could lead to a reversal in asset pricing logic, particularly if Harris's proposed policies result in a lower expansion of fiscal deficits [2][21][23] - Investment recommendations suggest gradually accumulating positions in sectors like non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and power equipment, which are less affected by U.S. election outcomes [2][24]