Wintrue Holding(002539)2024-10-28 00:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 15.697 billion yuan (down 3% YoY) and a net profit of 669 million yuan (down 6% YoY). The adjusted net profit was 584 million yuan (up 4% YoY) [2] - The decline in urea prices has pressured compound fertilizer sales, but the company is advancing its integrated supply chain strategy [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual stabilization of fertilizer prices and the completion of new production projects [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.697 billion yuan, with a net profit of 669 million yuan. The gross margin was 10.64% and the net margin was 4.34% [2][3] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.691 billion yuan (down 13% YoY, down 22% QoQ), with a net profit of 215 million yuan (up 6% YoY, down 10% QoQ) [2] Market Conditions - Urea prices fell by 13% in Q3 2024, impacting the purchasing enthusiasm of compound fertilizer distributors [2] - The prices of monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride, and urea showed slight declines, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has expanded its compound fertilizer production capacity to 7.2 million tons, with new projects in Jingzhou and Tieling [2] - The company is optimizing its industrial structure and enhancing its cost advantages through the development of high-value products [2] Future Outlook - The report projects a decrease in net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected profits of 842 million yuan, 1.068 billion yuan, and 1.334 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The company is positioned to leverage its integrated supply chain in the nitrogen and phosphorus sectors for future growth [2]