Investment Rating - JD Logistics (JDL) is rated Overweight (OW) with a price target of HK$20 for December 2025 [1][4][9] Core Investment Thesis - JDL has shown fundamental improvements and margin expansion since its IPO in May 2021, driven by business model recalibration and operating leverage gains [1][9] - Despite fierce competition in e-commerce and express parcel delivery, JDL has achieved breakeven in 2Q23 and rapidly improved profitability in subsequent quarters [1][12] - JDL is expected to benefit from China's trade-in policy, which boosts home appliance sales, and its integration with Taobao/Tmall for logistics services [1][12][16] - The company is undervalued, trading at 3.9x FY25E EV/EBITDA, compared to the industry average of 5.5x [1][23] Financial Performance and Forecasts - JDL's revenue is expected to grow 6% YoY in 3Q24, reaching Rmb44B, with net profit of Rmb1.1B and a net profit margin (NPM) of 2.5% [2][12] - Revenue from external customers is growing faster than from JD, with JD's contribution declining to around 30% of total revenue [2][12][14] - JDL's EBITDA margin is forecasted to improve from 8.8% in FY23 to 11.5% in FY25, driven by cost optimization and scale leverage [8][12] Growth Drivers - JDL is poised to benefit from Double 11 sales events, with Taobao/Tmall's integration expected to unlock growth in express parcel business [16][17] - The company plans to expand its overseas warehousing capabilities, doubling the gross floor area (GFA) by the end of 2025, focusing on regions like the Americas, Europe, and Southeast Asia [20] - JDL's partnership with JD is expected to drive mutual growth, particularly in home appliance sales, which surged 67% YoY during the October National Days Holiday [12][16] Valuation and Market Performance - JDL's share price has surged 52% YTD, outperforming the HSCI index (+18%) and other Chinese logistics companies [1][21] - The stock is trading at 12.2x FY25E P/E, with a forecasted EPS CAGR of 20% during FY24-26E [1][23] - JDL's valuation discount to Alibaba/PDD is aligned with its target EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0x, which is below the industry average of 5.5x [1][9][23] Industry Comparison - JDL's EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.9x for FY25E is lower than peers like ZTO Express (8.0x) and Yunda Holding (4.4x) [26] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 4.7% in FY23 to 12.4% in FY25, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [8][26]
摩根大通：京东物流-3Q24 预览，仍有充足的增长空间（和股价上涨空间）；假设覆盖率处于 OW