Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Company**: JD Logistics Core Views and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: JD Logistics achieved a total revenue of 44.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. External revenue accounted for 71.2% of the total, with adjusted net profit margin reaching 5.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. [2] - **Integrated Supply Chain**: Revenue from integrated supply chain business reached 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The number of external integrated supply chain customers reached 59,286, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. [4] - **Express and Express Delivery**: Revenue from express and express delivery business reached 23.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. [5] - **International Business**: JD Logistics actively expanded its international business, establishing an integrated global supply chain network with overseas warehouses as the core. [6] - **Technological Innovation**: JD Logistics continuously integrates advanced technologies and algorithms into daily operations, promoting changes in logistics network layout, site operation processes, automation applications, and transportation scheduling. [7] - **Cost Control**: JD Logistics achieved significant results in cost control, with efforts to further optimize operations and control costs in various areas. [10] Other Important Content - **Cost Control Efforts**: JD Logistics will continue to focus on cost control in areas such as employee costs, outsourcing costs, rental costs, other expenses, sales and marketing expenses, research and development expenses, and general and administrative expenses. [10] - **Impact of Policy Support**: The subsidy policy for home appliance replacement with old ones had a limited impact on JD Logistics' overall revenue structure. [12] - **Fourth Quarter Outlook**: The company expects the fourth quarter to be the best quarter of the year in terms of profit performance, with stable profit margins. [13] - **Future Investment Plans**: JD Logistics plans to continue exploring better business operation models and applying innovative technologies to seek higher resource efficiency. [16] - **Profitability Outlook**: JD Logistics has already exceeded the profitability target promised to shareholders at the time of listing and has reached a reasonable level in the industry. [17] - **Customer Growth**: JD Logistics expects customer numbers to continue to grow, with more customers choosing JD Logistics and JD Express. [18] - **Tmall Cooperation**: JD Logistics expects significant revenue growth from its cooperation with Tmall, with a rapid increase in market share. [19] - **Expansion of Business Opportunities**: JD Logistics plans to expand its business opportunities by combining its integrated supply chain capabilities with Tmall's platform. [20]

Investment Rating - JD Logistics (JDL) is rated **Overweight (OW)** with a price target of HK$20 for December 2025 [1][4][9] Core Investment Thesis - JDL has shown **fundamental improvements** and **margin expansion** since its IPO in May 2021, driven by business model recalibration and operating leverage gains [1][9] - Despite fierce competition in e-commerce and express parcel delivery, JDL has achieved **breakeven in 2Q23** and rapidly improved profitability in subsequent quarters [1][12] - JDL is expected to benefit from China's **trade-in policy**, which boosts home appliance sales, and its integration with Taobao/Tmall for logistics services [1][12][16] - The company is **undervalued**, trading at 3.9x FY25E EV/EBITDA, compared to the industry average of 5.5x [1][23] Financial Performance and Forecasts - JDL's revenue is expected to grow **6% YoY** in 3Q24, reaching Rmb44B, with net profit of Rmb1.1B and a net profit margin (NPM) of 2.5% [2][12] - Revenue from external customers is growing faster than from JD, with JD's contribution declining to around **30%** of total revenue [2][12][14] - JDL's **EBITDA margin** is forecasted to improve from 8.8% in FY23 to 11.5% in FY25, driven by cost optimization and scale leverage [8][12] Growth Drivers - JDL is poised to benefit from **Double 11** sales events, with Taobao/Tmall's integration expected to unlock growth in express parcel business [16][17] - The company plans to expand its **overseas warehousing** capabilities, doubling the gross floor area (GFA) by the end of 2025, focusing on regions like the Americas, Europe, and Southeast Asia [20] - JDL's partnership with JD is expected to drive **mutual growth**, particularly in home appliance sales, which surged 67% YoY during the October National Days Holiday [12][16] Valuation and Market Performance - JDL's share price has surged **52% YTD**, outperforming the HSCI index (+18%) and other Chinese logistics companies [1][21] - The stock is trading at **12.2x FY25E P/E**, with a forecasted EPS CAGR of 20% during FY24-26E [1][23] - JDL's valuation discount to Alibaba/PDD is aligned with its target EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0x, which is below the industry average of 5.5x [1][9][23] Industry Comparison - JDL's **EV/EBITDA multiple** of 3.9x for FY25E is lower than peers like ZTO Express (8.0x) and Yunda Holding (4.4x) [26] - The company's **ROE** is expected to improve from 4.7% in FY23 to 12.4% in FY25, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [8][26]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： V i e w p o i n t | 14 Oct 2024 19:19:04 ET │ 16 pages JD Logistics (2618.HK) 30-day +CW on Potential Solid Earnings Beat in 3Q24 Results shuinu9870 CITI'S TAKE JDL is likely to report 3Q24 results ~mid-Nov; we expect another solid beat on margins despite muted revs performance. On revs front, 1P ISC growth could slow down sequentially on to ...