中国财政系列六：化债和扩张，箭已在弦上

Revenue Analysis - General public budget revenue in September decreased by 2.20% year-on-year, with VAT down by 5.60% and corporate income tax down by 4.30%[2] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 20.20% year-on-year, with local revenue declining by 22.50%[2] - Total general public budget revenue from January to September reached 163,059 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year[13] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in September increased by 2.00% year-on-year, with social security and employment spending up by 4.30%[2] - Government fund budget expenditure decreased by 8.90% year-on-year, with local expenditure down by 9.70%[2] - Total general public budget expenditure from January to September was 201,779 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 2% year-on-year[15] Economic Context - The revenue completion rate for the general public budget in September was 72.8%, which is 5.0 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years[2] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate in September was +0.4%, indicating low inflation characteristics[2] - Debt interest payment expenditure in September rose to +8.0% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since May of the previous year[2] Future Considerations - Focus on the fiscal space released through debt replacement and its impact on expectations[3] - Anticipate spending expansion in the last two months of the year to achieve budget targets through comprehensive measures[3]