SINOTRANS(601598) Guolian Securities·2024-10-28 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 85.872 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.41% to 2.825 billion yuan [2][6] - The third quarter revenue was 29.505 billion yuan, up 18.27% year-on-year, with a net profit of 880 million yuan, down 10.34% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic economic policies, leading to a gradual recovery in domestic demand, and the current dividend yield is attractive at 5.74% [2][6] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.154 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.61% year-on-year, followed by increases of 5.13% and 6.92% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.57 yuan, with projections of 0.60 yuan and 0.64 yuan for 2025 and 2026 [6][7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 101.705 billion yuan in 2023 to 119.791 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 17.78% [7] Business Segments - The company’s freight forwarding volume growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% in sea freight and 1.4% in air freight for Q3 2024, while rail freight saw a significant increase of 56.2% [6] - The company received 1.58 billion yuan in subsidies related to its business, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with rail freight subsidies increasing by 21.6% to approximately 777 million yuan [6] - The contract logistics business faced challenges due to weak domestic demand, with a volume decrease of 7.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [6] Market Position - The company maintains a competitive advantage in various logistics segments, which is expected to support its recovery as domestic demand improves [6][7] - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 28.277 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of 28.277 billion yuan [4]