汽车：金九银十成色足 特斯拉三季报强劲

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][42]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of government subsidies for vehicle replacement and trade-in programs, leading to a notable increase in passenger car sales. As of October 24, 2023, there were 1.57 million applications for vehicle scrappage subsidies and 1.26 million for trade-in subsidies, indicating a rapid growth trend that supports consumer recovery [9][20]. - In September, retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 2.109 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 10.6%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 1.123 million units, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [9][20]. - Tesla's Q3 2024 financial report showed a 6.4% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales to 463,000 units, with total revenue of $25.182 billion, up 8% year-on-year. The automotive business revenue was $20.016 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, and gross profit rose 20% to $4.997 billion [9][20]. - The report anticipates that Tesla's global deliveries for the year will exceed 1.8 million units, with potential growth of 20%-30% in 2025 [9][20]. Market Performance - From October 21 to 25, 2024, the automotive sector increased by 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.7 percentage points. Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 11.9%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [6][7][10]. - Sub-sectors such as passenger cars, commercial trucks, automotive parts, automotive services, and motorcycles saw increases of 3.1%, 1.5%, 3.4%, 7.3%, and 12.1% respectively, while commercial passenger vehicles decreased by 1.4% [10][11]. Key Industry Data - For the period of October 1-20, 2023, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.264 million units, a 16% year-on-year increase, while NEV retail sales were 609,000 units, up 45% year-on-year [17][19]. - Wholesale sales of passenger cars during the same period were 1.336 million units, a 25% year-on-year increase, with NEV wholesale sales at 679,000 units, up 51% year-on-year [17][19]. - In September, total automobile sales were 2.809 million units, a month-on-month increase of 14.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, total sales reached 21.571 million units, a 2.4% year-on-year increase [20][21]. Industry News - Great Wall Motors launched the Hi4-Z platform, featuring a pure electric range exceeding 200 kilometers and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of around 4 seconds [30]. - A new battery brand, "Xiaoyao," was introduced by CATL, designed for hybrid models, with a pure electric range of over 400 kilometers [36].