CHACHA FOOD CO.,LTD(SZ:002557) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-28 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 showed a slight increase, with a year-on-year growth of 3.72%, reversing the revenue decline seen in Q2 2024. This improvement is attributed to stable performance in the core product segment, although overall growth remains modest due to weak demand in the nut segment and intensified industry competition [3][4] - The company's profitability improved in Q3 2024, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 6.31 percentage points and 2.25 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to declining raw material costs. Additionally, both sales and management expense ratios decreased [4] - The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in Q4 2024, driven by the earlier timing of the Spring Festival in 2025, which may lead to a recovery in double-digit revenue growth from a low base. However, rising procurement prices for sunflower seeds due to weather conditions may slightly impact profitability [5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,499 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 990 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.3% [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 30.1% in 2024, with a net margin of 13.2%. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.5% [6][10] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.0 for 2024, decreasing to 15.3 in 2025 and 13.6 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][10]