有色金属行业：增量政策有望持续出台，继续战略看多大宗板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The continuation of trends supports the "Overweight" rating, with precious metals benefiting from rising safe-haven demand and increasing ETF holdings, while base metals are expected to experience limited downside due to a reshaping supply-demand landscape [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Review - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold reaching $2,760.8 per ounce, up 0.9% week-on-week, and SHFE gold at 624.72 yuan per gram, up 0.91% [1][13] - Base metals show mixed performance, with LME copper down 0.6%, aluminum up 2.2%, and nickel down 5.2% [1][15] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the market, with a 2.37% increase [1][11] Macro Factors - Domestic economic data for September shows marginal stabilization, with industrial output up 5.4% year-on-year and retail sales up 3.2% [1][18] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 227,000 and the Michigan consumer sentiment index at 70.5 [1][20] - Global manufacturing PMI for September is at 48.8, indicating a continued recovery potential [1][18] Precious Metals - Rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of a prolonged high-interest rate environment support the upward trend in precious metals prices [1][3] - The actual yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 2%, contributing to the bullish outlook for gold [1][3] Base Metals - The aluminum market shows strong support from cost factors and inventory depletion, with short-term expectations of a strong oscillation [2][3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, with LME copper inventory at 276,800 tons, down 0.74% [2][3] - Zinc prices are volatile due to supply disruptions and weak domestic demand, with social inventory at 125,900 tons [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, anticipating continued policy support and potential recovery in demand across the sector [1][2]