10月石化产业链数据跟踪：行业价差预期改善，关注中下游复苏节奏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending downstream leading companies that benefit from improved domestic demand expectations [4][5]. Core Insights - Recent fiscal policies have led to strong expectations for recovery in chemical products, with signs of improvement in price differentials in certain segments of the olefin and polyester industrial chains, highlighting opportunities in leading downstream enterprises benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Oil and Gas Price Fluctuations - Oil prices have been volatile due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, with Brent crude averaging $83.39, $85.15, and $80.50 per barrel in the first three quarters of 2024 [9]. - As of October 16, Brent crude prices fell from $81.33 to $73.95 per barrel [9]. 2. Refining Price Differentials - Global refined oil crack spreads weakened in August and September 2024, with the U.S. Gulf Coast WTI 3:2:1 crack spread averaging $23.79, $22.15, and $17.28 per barrel in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24%, 14%, and 49% respectively [12]. - Domestic main refineries maintain a gross profit of 300-500 RMB/ton, slightly strengthening since October, while Shandong independent refineries' profits have dropped to a five-year low of 103 RMB/ton [19]. 3. Olefin Industry Chain Trends - The olefin industry chain shows a positive trend, with ethylene and propylene production rates increasing. As of October 17, 2024, the ethylene operating rate was approximately 84.59% [24][28]. - Propylene production has also been on the rise, with a total output of 69.22 million tons as of October 18, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [32]. 4. Polyester Industry Chain Recovery - The polyester industry chain is experiencing a recovery, with high operating rates in downstream sectors. As of October 2024, the operating rates for weaving and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 93% and 86% respectively, higher than previous years [4][39]. - The PX and PTA processing margins have compressed, with the PX to naphtha spread narrowing to 1350 RMB/ton [39]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, as key beneficiaries of the expected recovery in domestic demand [4].