巨星农牧：巨星转债投资价值分析：高成长高弹性，生猪养殖盈利或持续

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of AA- to the convertible bond of the company, with a bond balance of 900 million yuan, accounting for 89.97% of the total issuance [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned in the pig farming sector, which is entering a performance realization phase, with Q3 average pork prices at 26.11 yuan/kg, a 19.58% increase from Q2. The self-breeding profit per head is 500.36 yuan, showing further improvement [1]. - The company has strong cost control capabilities and better growth potential, having continuously increased its breeding scale since its listing in 2020, gradually moving into the industry's first tier. The breeding cost optimization is industry-leading [3]. - The company employs a "company + farmer" cooperative breeding model, which accounts for approximately 80% of its breeding scale, and is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs further [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is based in Leshan, Sichuan, with a total market value of approximately 10 billion yuan. Its revenue composition for H124 is 85.71% from pig farming, 11.32% from feed, and 2.12% from leather products, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 87.13% [1]. Financial Performance - The latest estimated PE for 2024 is 15.4x, and the PB is 3.59x [1]. - The average pork price in Q3 was 26.11 yuan/kg, reflecting a 19.58% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [1]. Market Position - The company is recognized as an industry leader, with peers such as Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs exceeding market expectations in Q3 performance [1]. - The report notes that the industry's willingness to replenish breeding sows has significantly weakened due to high asset-liability ratios and recent industry shocks [1]. Investment Opportunity - The convertible bond is currently undervalued due to market pessimism and concerns over group risks, with a significant drop since May 2024, suggesting a potential for recovery [3]. - The reasonable valuation for the convertible bond is estimated to be between 121-129 yuan, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [4].