YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 开源证券·2024-10-28 03:00Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Yankuang Energy (600188 SH) [1][4] Core Views - Yankuang Energy reported steady Q3 performance with strong overseas growth, maintaining high dividend payout and growth potential [4] - The company is positioned as an international coal leader with clear transformation directions in new energy, new materials, and smart logistics [4] - Increased dividend commitment and mid-term dividend enhance investment value [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 343 2 billion yuan, up 5 0% QoQ, with net profit of 38 4 billion yuan, up 0 7% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue was 1066 3 billion yuan, down 21 5% YoY, with net profit of 114 1 billion yuan, down 27 0% YoY [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasted at 154 8/179 6/203 2 billion yuan, with EPS of 2 08/2 41/2 73 yuan [4] - Current PE ratio is 6 8x for 2024, 5 9x for 2025, and 5 2x for 2026 [4] Coal Business - 2024 Q1-Q3 coal production and sales were 10581/10259 million tons, up 8 75%/3 45% YoY [4] - Domestic coal production and sales were 7465/6510 million tons, up 7 2%/5 9% YoY [4] - Overseas coal production and sales were 3117/3112 million tons, up 12 7%/16 1% YoY [4] - Q3 2024 overseas coal sales price increased 4 3% QoQ to 835 yuan/ton, with gross margin up 69 5% QoQ [4] Growth Potential - Coal production growth expected with new mines: Wanfu Mine (1 8 million tons) to start in 2024, Wucaiwan Mine (10 million tons) in 2025 [4] - 2024 coal production growth forecasted at 6 0%, making it a rare growth player in the coal sector [4] - Rongxin Chemical project investment of 9 57 billion yuan announced in October 2024 [4] Dividend Policy - Dividend payout ratio for 2023-2025 set at no less than 60%, with cash dividend per share no less than 0 5 yuan [4] - 2024 estimated dividend yield is 5 5% based on current share price [4] - Mid-term dividend payout ratio of 30 5% announced in 2024 interim report [4]