医药行业周报：医保谈判进行中，关注政策趋势变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The ongoing medical insurance negotiations are in the final stage, with results expected to significantly influence policy direction and support for innovative drugs [1]. - The pharmaceutical investment environment is showing signs of stabilization, with a gradual recovery in the secondary market, bolstered by government support and a favorable financing landscape [2]. - There is a notable divergence in performance between domestic and international markets, particularly in the medical device sector, with exports becoming a key growth driver [3]. - The respiratory diagnostics market is poised for growth, with several Chinese companies gaining regulatory approvals for their products in international markets [4]. - The potential for domestic GLP-1 drugs to enter international markets is promising, with several companies preparing for overseas launches [6]. - The raw material supply chain is tightening, leading to sustained performance elasticity in the pharmaceutical sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Medical Insurance Negotiations - The medical insurance drug list adjustment is in its final phase, with negotiations taking place from October 27 to 30, 2024, in Beijing. The results are expected to be announced in November [1]. - In 2023, 105 new drugs were added to the medical insurance list, benefiting 7.978 million people, with sales in September reaching seven times that of January [1]. - The success rate for negotiations in 2023 was 84.6%, with an average price reduction of 61.7%, and a similar success rate is anticipated for 2024 [1]. 2. Investment Environment - In the first half of 2024, there were 415 financing transactions in the domestic healthcare sector, totaling approximately $4.8 billion, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The secondary market is recovering, supported by government initiatives aimed at promoting high-quality development in the biopharmaceutical sector [2]. 3. Export Performance - In August 2024, China's exports to RCEP countries, the Belt and Road Initiative, and ASEAN reached 5.789 billion, 6.209 billion, and 3.010 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth in exports compared to July [3]. - The export of Western pharmaceutical preparations reached $596 million in August 2024, showing an 11.63% year-on-year increase [3]. 4. Respiratory Diagnostics Market - 2024 is expected to be a pivotal year for Chinese companies entering the global respiratory diagnostics market, with several products receiving FDA approval [4]. - The market for respiratory infection testing is projected to continue growing, driven by increased government procurement and rising testing penetration rates [4]. 5. GLP-1 Drug Market - The sales of GLP-1 drugs in China reached approximately 3.868 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 23% [6]. - Several domestic companies are preparing for international launches of their GLP-1 products, with promising clinical trial results [6]. 6. Raw Material Supply Chain - The supply of key raw materials, such as vitamins A and E, is tightening, leading to stable pricing and performance in the pharmaceutical sector [8]. - In August 2024, China's raw material drug exports reached $3.474 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [8].