策略周报：科创能否重现2013-2015年创业牛

Key Insights - The report discusses whether the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) can replicate the bull market of the ChiNext board from 2013 to 2015, highlighting similarities and differences between the two periods [1][7][19] - The report identifies four similarities between the current 科创板 and the 2013-2015 ChiNext: both have undergone significant adjustments, emergence of new industries, supportive M&A policies, and similar fund holding ratios [1][7] - Differences include valuation levels, performance metrics, and sector structures, which may limit the potential upside for 科创板 compared to ChiNext [1][19] - The optimistic scenario suggests that the 科创 50 index could have approximately 65% upside potential based on the historical performance of ChiNext [1][24] - The report estimates that the 科创 50 index could be driven by a 7% increase from the semiconductor sector, which has a significant weight in the index [1][24] Similarities and Differences - The report notes that both boards experienced substantial adjustments prior to their respective bull markets, with the 科创板 down approximately 60% from its peak, similar to the 52% decline of ChiNext before its rise [13][19] - Both boards benefited from supportive policies for M&A and restructuring, with the current 科创板 expected to see increased M&A activity due to recent regulatory changes [8][19] - The report highlights that while the 科创板's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is higher than that of ChiNext during its bull market, it is still below the peak levels reached by ChiNext [19][21] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the 科创板 will enter a second phase of the bull market, supported by favorable policies, liquidity, and active trading sentiment [24] - It draws parallels to the ChiNext's two-phase bull market from 2013 to 2015, where both phases saw significant gains, suggesting a similar trajectory for the 科创板 [24][25] - The report indicates that the semiconductor sector's performance will be crucial for the 科创板's future, as it constitutes a large portion of the index [24][30]