中国电信：ARPU保持稳定，控费提质卓有成效

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Telecom is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Telecom has achieved stable ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) and effective cost control measures, leading to improved service quality [1]. - The company is focusing on deepening its digital transformation and expanding its ecosystem partnerships to meet the digitalization needs across various industries [1]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 560.7 billion yuan in 2024, 623.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 697.5 billion yuan in 2026 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: - 2022A: 474,967 million yuan - 2023A: 507,843 million yuan - 2024E: 560,709 million yuan (growth rate of 10.4%) - 2025E: 623,901 million yuan (growth rate of 11.3%) - 2026E: 697,521 million yuan (growth rate of 11.8%) [1][2] - Net Profit: - 2022A: 27,593 million yuan - 2023A: 30,446 million yuan - 2024E: 33,865 million yuan (growth rate of 11.2%) - 2025E: 38,100 million yuan (growth rate of 12.5%) - 2026E: 43,453 million yuan (growth rate of 14.1%) [1][2] - Key Ratios: - ROE: Expected to increase from 6.3% in 2022A to 8.7% in 2026E [1][2]. - EPS: Projected to rise from 0.30 yuan in 2022A to 0.47 yuan in 2026E [1][2]. Business Segment Performance - The mobile communication service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 156.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1]. - The company has seen a stable ARPU of 45.6 yuan in mobile services, while fixed-line and smart home services generated 95.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1]. - The smart home revenue grew by 17.0% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand in this segment [1]. Strategic Initiatives - China Telecom is enhancing its operational efficiency through intelligent operations and cost control, which has resulted in a decrease in overall expenses while maintaining strong R&D investments [1]. - The company is leveraging opportunities in the digital transformation of the economy and society, focusing on strategic emerging businesses to promote the integration of digital technology with the real economy [1].