汽车行业周报：两新补贴政策加码，乘用车销量走势持续较强

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of October 27, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - Recent subsidy policies in Guizhou and Hubei have been enhanced, leading to a strong upward trend in passenger car sales. As of October 24, over 1.57 million applications for vehicle scrapping subsidies and over 1.26 million for vehicle replacement subsidies have been submitted nationwide, indicating a rapid growth in subsidy applications and a significant boost in automotive consumption through trade-in programs [1]. - The first fully integrated automotive testing ground in China has begun trial operations, utilizing "Beidou + 5G technology" to support various testing scenarios for autonomous and connected vehicles, which is expected to accelerate the development of automotive intelligence in the country [1]. - The report suggests focusing on opportunities arising from the continued promotion of trade-in policies and the initiation of new vehicle cycles, as well as the technological advancements supporting intelligent vehicles [1]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - From October 1 to 20, 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.264 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 12%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 16.838 million units, up 3% year-on-year. Wholesale sales during the same period were 1.336 million units, up 25% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 19.78 million units, a 5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights major companies such as GAC Group and Aikodi as key players in the passenger vehicle market [1]. New Energy Vehicles - For the same period, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 609,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a month-on-month increase of 1%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 7.741 million units, up 38% year-on-year. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 679,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with cumulative wholesale sales at 8.589 million units, up 35% year-on-year [1]. - Key companies benefiting from the growth in new energy vehicle sales include BYD and CATL [1]. Heavy Trucks - In September, the heavy truck market in China sold 58,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 7.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%. Cumulative sales for 2024 reached 683,000 units, down 3.4% year-on-year. The report anticipates a gradual release of demand and orders for heavy trucks as local governments implement trade-in policies [2]. - Recommended stocks in the heavy truck sector include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [2]. Market Trends - The automotive sector saw a 3.5% increase in the SW automotive index during the week of October 21-25, 2024, with the passenger vehicle segment rising by 3.1% [9]. - The report notes that the automotive industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 23 times as of October 25, 2024, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous week [12]. Policy Developments - Guizhou and Hubei provinces have optimized their vehicle replacement subsidy policies, removing restrictions on vehicle registration locations and allowing multiple subsidies for eligible applicants [22][23]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the development of new energy vehicles in rural areas and exploring battery swap models to expand automotive consumption [24].