有色金属行业：缅甸供应不确定性增大，稀土价格回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in rare earth prices due to increased demand and supply uncertainties from Myanmar, with a focus on the long-term growth potential in sectors such as robotics, new energy vehicles, and industrial energy-saving motors [1][2] - The report emphasizes the resilience of small metal prices, particularly for rare earths, antimony, and tin, driven by tight supply and recovering demand in the photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 9% to 7,873 tons, equivalent to approximately 3,560 metal tons [1] - The report notes a 1.29% increase in the main contract for non-ferrous metals, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 0.69% [1][2] Demand Trends - The photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in new installations, with 20.89 GW added in September, marking a 32% year-on-year growth [12] - The new energy vehicle sector reported production and sales of 1.307 million and 1.287 million units in September, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3% [15] Price Movements - The report indicates that the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 0.95% to 423,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 0.57% [9][11] - Antimony prices showed slight declines, with domestic antimony concentrate priced at 126,000 CNY/ton, down 0.79% [2][11] Supply Chain Insights - The report notes that the supply of rare earths is tightening due to increased geopolitical risks in Myanmar, with imports of rare earth minerals from Myanmar rising by 98.34% to 3,912 tons in September [1][11] - The production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide remains stable, with domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 72,500 CNY/ton [1][9] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Nonferrous Index rising by 2.37% [6] - The report highlights a positive outlook for small metals, particularly in light of ongoing domestic policy support and recovering demand [1][2]