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农业行业周报:肥猪供给相对偏紧,关注生猪养殖板块
Haitong Securities·2024-10-28 03:40

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The agriculture sector saw a 4.0% increase last week, ranking 12th among the Shenwan primary industries. The leading sub-sectors included seeds (+8.8%), animal health (+7.6%), and aquaculture (+6.8%) [2][5]. - The report highlights a tight supply of fat pigs, suggesting a focus on the pig farming sector. Despite a slight decrease in pig prices, the overall market conditions indicate a prolonged period of high pig prices due to cautious expansion in production capacity [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of the aquaculture feed industry, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies like Haida Group [3][5]. - The white feather broiler industry is expected to see improved profitability due to recovering demand and decreasing feed costs, with a focus on companies such as Shengnong Development and He Feng Shares [4][5]. - The report notes the ongoing advancement of genetically modified crops, presenting new opportunities for leading companies with technological advantages [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The agriculture sector increased by 4.0% last week, with notable gains in seeds, animal health, and aquaculture [2][5]. - The average price of live pigs was 17.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.7% [3][10]. Pig Farming Sector - The report indicates a decrease in the average weight of pig slaughter and a decline in the proportion of larger pigs being sold, suggesting a tighter supply of fat pigs [3][5]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Shennong Group [3][5]. Aquaculture Sector - The report notes a general decline in aquaculture prices but anticipates a recovery in the industry, particularly for leading companies like Haida Group [3][5]. Poultry Sector - The average price of white feather broiler chicks was 4.3 yuan/chick, with a slight decrease of 0.9% week-on-week. The average price of broilers was 3.7 yuan/kg, reflecting a 1.96% increase [4][18]. - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Shengnong Development and He Feng Shares due to expected profitability improvements [4][5]. Genetically Modified Crops - The report highlights the ongoing development of genetically modified crops, with significant advancements expected in 2024 [4][5]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is performing well, with both domestic and overseas sales showing positive growth [4][5].