基础化工行业：2024年10月第4周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectations for oil supply and demand have turned pessimistic, and the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a weak trend in oil prices, negatively impacting the petrochemical industry's fundamentals. The report highlights a preference for leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices. Additionally, the increasing instability in global situations has underscored the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side structural optimization [10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Product Information - As of October 25, Brent oil prices increased by 4.1% to $76.05 per barrel. The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, an increase of 5.5 million barrels week-over-week. Gasoline inventories also increased by 900,000 barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels [11]. Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases for the week were liquid chlorine (up 21.6%), vitamin A (up 16.1%), and natural gas (up 12.2%). The top three price decreases were aniline (down 8.4%), solvent oil (down 5.7%), and caprolactam (down 5.7%). Monthly data shows liquid chlorine leading with a 109.0% increase, while vitamin A saw a 20.0% decrease [3][12]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were styrene (up 1299.4%), BDO spread via the maleic anhydride method (up 85.7%), and BDO spread via the calcium carbide method (up 43.9%). The largest decreases were seen in R410A spread (down 200.0%), hydrogen peroxide spread (down 100.0%), and PTMEG spread (down 40.4%). Monthly data indicates that the largest increase was in the butyl acrylate spread (up 241.1%) [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Recent profit improvement in core product MDI, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects. - Huamao Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase. - Jinhui Industrial (002597, Buy): A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in product demand. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated): A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions and potential for increased dividends [5][10].