证券公司行业季度观察--2024年第三季度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit level for the securities industry, indicating a cautious but stable investment environment [2][8]. Core Insights - The securities industry continues to face significant pressure on performance growth across various business segments due to ongoing strict regulatory measures, although operational risks remain controllable [2][3]. - The issuance scale of various debt financing tools by securities companies has decreased year-on-year, with a net financing scale being negative, reflecting a decline in financing demand [2][10]. - The stock market has shown a recovery after initial declines, with self-operated equity businesses expected to perform better than the same period last year [2][21]. - The trading activity in the stock market has decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, leading to a forecasted decline in brokerage commission income [2][23]. - The number of IPO projects has significantly decreased year-on-year, continuing a tightening trend, while the bond underwriting scale has increased [2][24]. Regulatory Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has continued to implement rules to enhance regulatory measures and prevent risks, achieving initial results in promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - The CSRC has approved the suspension of the securities lending business, which is expected to stabilize the market [6]. - New regulations have been introduced to manage the involvement of former CSRC personnel in listed companies, enhancing the integrity of the market [4][5]. Debt Market Tracking - In Q3 2024, the issuance of various debt financing tools by securities companies has decreased, with a total issuance scale of 195.14 billion yuan, down 45.71% year-on-year [10][13]. - The average issuance spread for AAA-rated securities companies has remained stable, while AA+ companies have seen a narrowing of spreads [13][15]. Industry Dynamics - There have been no IPOs or other equity financing activities by securities companies in Q3 2024, indicating a slowdown in capital replenishment due to market and regulatory conditions [17][19]. - Mergers and acquisitions among securities companies have accelerated, driven by favorable policies aimed at enhancing industry concentration [19][20]. Performance Analysis - The stock market indices have shown significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.15% year-to-date [21][22]. - Brokerage business performance is expected to improve in Q4 2024 due to a resurgence in trading activity following favorable policy announcements [23][24]. - The investment banking sector is experiencing a decline in revenue due to a significant reduction in IPO approvals and tightened regulatory scrutiny [24][27].