ACEG(600502) 天风证券·2024-10-28 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 53.963 billion yuan, down 9.96% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.962 billion yuan, down 9.55% year-on-year [1]. - Despite the challenges, there is an expectation of upward momentum in the infrastructure and housing construction sectors in the fourth quarter, supported by fiscal stimulus measures and ongoing projects in regions like Anhui [3]. - The company's valuation is currently at a historical low, with a PE ratio of 14.88% and a PB ratio of 12.75%, alongside a dividend yield of 5.3%, suggesting long-term investment value [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 11.37% in Q3, a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the cumulative gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.2%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company recorded a cash flow from operations (CFO) net outflow of 5.255 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a significant decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 88.946 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.52% compared to 2023, with net profit expected to be 1.574 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.31% [5][10]. Market and Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve due to government measures aimed at increasing fiscal support and facilitating infrastructure projects, which may positively impact the company's performance [3]. - Anhui province's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.2%, indicating a robust local economy that could benefit the company [3].