Anhui (SZ:002983) Huaan Securities·2024-10-28 06:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 280 million (down 27.1% year-on-year), net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million (up 55.3% year-on-year), and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 20 million (down 58.1% year-on-year) [1] - The Mini backlight module is experiencing rapid growth, with expectations for continued performance recovery driven by increased sales [1] - The display terminal segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of approximately 80% in Q3 due to intensified competition and underwhelming new product performance [1] Revenue Analysis - Mini backlight module revenue doubled year-on-year, with Q3 revenue accelerating by 40% compared to H1 [1] - The company anticipates a single-digit growth in revenue for Q3 when adjusted for net revenue method [1] - The domestic sales of MiniLED TVs surged by 297% in Q3, significantly boosted by trade-in programs [1] Profit Analysis - Q3 gross margin decreased by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to declines in both volume and price in the display terminal segment [1] - The net profit margin and gross profit margin are under pressure from rising manufacturing costs [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues of 900 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.4 billion for 2024-2026 (previously 1.2 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.8 billion) [1] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 100 million, 130 million, and 165 million for 2024-2026 (previously 150 million, 180 million, and 220 million) [1] Financial Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 49, 38, and 30 for 2024-2026 [1] - The expected ROE is 7.6%, 9.0%, and 10.2% for 2024-2026 [2][5]