电梯行业专题：基本面有望走稳，国产崛起正当时

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The elevator industry is expected to stabilize, with domestic brands rising [7] - The elevator market is significantly influenced by real estate completion data, with new elevator sales expected to decline due to weaker construction starts from 2024 to 2026 [13][14] - The demand for elevator installation in old residential buildings is anticipated to increase, supported by government subsidies and policies [16][17] - The aging of elevators is expected to drive the demand for replacements, with projections indicating that by 2030, the elevator replacement volume will reach 2.74 million units [22][24] - The maintenance market for elevators is projected to grow, with the market size expected to reach 27.7 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 14% [28] Summary by Sections 1. Elevator Industry Overview - Elevators are classified as special equipment, primarily for transportation, with vertical elevators accounting for approximately 85% of the market [7] - The upstream of the elevator manufacturing industry includes raw materials and component manufacturing, while the downstream applications encompass residential and commercial real estate, infrastructure, and municipal projects [9] 2. New Elevator Market - The real estate sector is the largest downstream application for elevators, with a strong correlation between elevator production and completion data [13] - New construction starts have declined significantly since 2020, leading to anticipated pressure on new elevator sales from 2024 to 2026 [14] 3. Aftermarket - The increasing number of aging elevators is expected to boost replacement demand, with about 800,000 elevators currently exceeding 15 years of service [22] - The maintenance market is expected to grow as the proportion of self-maintenance by manufacturers increases, with projections indicating a market size of 27.7 billion yuan by 2030 [28] 4. Competitive Landscape - The domestic elevator market is characterized by competition between foreign and domestic brands, with foreign brands holding approximately 65% of the market share [30] - The market is expected to consolidate, with smaller companies exiting the market, leading to an increase in market concentration [30]