贵州茅台：前三季度经营稳健，达成全年目标可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% [3][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 120.78 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of RMB 60.83 billion, up 15% year-on-year [3]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached RMB 101.13 billion, a 15.9% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was RMB 19.4 billion, growing by 24.4% [3]. - The report highlights a stable performance in revenue and profit, with expectations for the company to meet its annual targets [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 38.85 billion, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 19.13 billion, up 13% [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 91.7%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Sales Channels - Direct sales generated approximately RMB 52 billion in revenue for the first three quarters, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, while traditional channels saw revenue of RMB 68.53 billion, up 21% [4]. - In Q3, direct sales revenue was RMB 18.26 billion, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, while traditional channels generated RMB 20.54 billion, a 9.7% increase [4]. Profit Forecast - The report slightly lowers profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of RMB 86.2 billion, RMB 97.86 billion, and RMB 108.45 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3%, 13.5%, and 10.8% [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 68.62, RMB 77.90, and RMB 86.33, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [5][8].