宏观研究报告：风险偏好可能还有第二轮磨顶的机会

Policy and Economic Outlook - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates has been completed, with first and second home loan rates unified at LPR minus 30 basis points, which helps reduce bank bad debt risks and early repayment behaviors[1] - To fully resolve risks in the real estate sector, housing prices need to stabilize; however, as of October 26, 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of housing sales in 30 major cities is -10.0%, indicating ongoing negative growth despite a narrowing decline compared to previous months[4] - The current focus remains on policy, with market risk appetite increasing due to a perceived positive attitude in policy decision-making, rather than specific effective policies[1] Market Performance - The 10Y government bond yield has returned to 2.15%, and A-shares have seen a broad increase, particularly in glass and other Chinese concept products[1] - Despite the bond market not entering a bear phase, it will still be influenced by risk appetite; yields may slowly rise to form a second peak in the coming month, presenting a good opportunity for accounts with low positions[8] - The U.S. 10Y Treasury yield has surpassed 4.2% due to strong employment data and election expectations, suggesting that U.S. equities and other risk assets may perform relatively well[10] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on the effectiveness of existing policies and potential incremental policies in the macroeconomic landscape[14] - In terms of asset allocation, interest rate bonds remain a favored asset, but a larger position can be allocated to equities in the short term[14] - Caution is advised in the real estate sector, with a focus on credit risk management, while opportunities for shorting certain commodities should be considered[14]