策略观点:整体波动和梯次上涨仍是后市主旋律
China Post Securities·2024-10-28 06:34

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices led the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind. The growth style continued to dominate, with a rebound in consumer stocks and a decline in financial stocks [6][8]. - The performance of core assets showed divergence, with the "Ning" combination rising by 5.26% and the "Mao" index only increasing by 1.51% [6][8]. Important Events and Data - From January to September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.5%, totaling 52,281.6 billion yuan. State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of 6.5%, while private enterprises experienced a slight decrease of 0.6% [9][10]. - In September, public fiscal expenditure increased significantly by 5.2%, with notable acceleration in infrastructure and social welfare spending. Expenditure on agricultural and rural affairs surged by 12.5% [12]. - The 12th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee is scheduled for November 4-8, which will discuss various financial and administrative reports [13]. - The sixth meeting of the China-U.S. Economic Working Group took place on October 25, focusing on macroeconomic conditions and policies, as well as cooperation on global challenges [15]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The overall market is expected to experience continued volatility and gradual upward trends. The rapid rise in A-shares since September 24 is attributed to policy expectations and capital behavior. However, the lack of further policy developments may lead to a shift towards two-way fluctuations in the market [16][17]. - Short-term strategies should focus on financial catalysts, while long-term strategies should emphasize a reversal mindset. The upcoming National People's Congress meeting may provide policy catalysts, particularly in the financial sector [17].