铜月报（202410）：等待宏观局势明朗，通胀预期反弹或将再度驱动铜价上行

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic factors and inflation expectations [4][5]. - Supply constraints and cautious demand from end customers are influencing the copper market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Sector - Copper ore imports in September were 2.436 million tons, down 138,000 tons or 5.4% month-on-month, but up 196,000 tons or 8.7% year-on-year [14]. - Scrap copper imports in September were 160,000 tons, down 10,000 tons or 5.8% year-on-year and down 9,000 tons or 5.4% month-on-month [16]. Supply Side - In September, refined copper production was 1.004 million tons, up 0.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.61% [20]. - Refined copper imports in September were 323,000 tons, up 73,000 tons or 29.2% year-on-year, but down 6,000 tons or 1.7% month-on-month [22]. Processing Sector - Copper product production in September was 2.0126 million tons, down 2.6% year-on-year but up 4.5% month-on-month [31]. - Copper product exports in September were 77,600 tons, up 165 tons or 39.1% year-on-year, but down 27,000 tons or 26.0% month-on-month [33]. End Demand - Apparent demand in September was 1.311 million tons, up 7.3% month-on-month [38]. - Notable increases in production were observed in air conditioners (18.84 million units, up 16.9% year-on-year) and new energy vehicles (1.31 million units, up 48.7% year-on-year) [38]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI for September was recorded at 2.4%, down from 3.3% the previous month, indicating a cooling inflation trend [44]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 50 basis points is expected to support copper prices amid a tightening supply-demand balance [5][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the copper market is in a tight balance, with supply constraints and cautious demand impacting prices [5]. - Long-term outlook remains positive for copper prices due to expected increases in investment and consumption following monetary easing [5].