海外经济与政策周报：特朗普交易的胜率与赔率

Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October shows a marginal improvement at 47.8, up from 47.3 in September, while the services PMI remains strong at 55.3[16] - The U.S. economic surprise index recorded a value of 19.7, indicating that actual economic conditions are better than expected[23] - The latest Beige Book indicates stable economic activity across most regions, with inflation continuing to ease[16] Group 2: Political Landscape and Election Insights - Trump's probability of winning the election has risen to 64.1%, with the Republican Party expected to secure the Senate and House with probabilities of 85% and 52%, respectively[12] - Early voting numbers have dropped significantly, with only 29.1 million ballots cast compared to 2020, reflecting a decrease in voter turnout[10] - In battleground states, Trump leads by narrow margins, with a 2.2% lead in Georgia and a 1.5% lead in Arizona[12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.83% amid strong expectations for Trump's victory and stable U.S. economic conditions[2] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 17 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated election outcomes[2] - Oil and precious metal prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding Trump's policies[2]