10月高频数据有所回暖，上下游恢复仍有分化

Economic Performance - October economic sentiment shows signs of improvement, with industrial demand recovering and construction activity accelerating due to increased special bond issuance[2] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 42.71% compared to September, indicating a significant recovery in the real estate market[12] - The average price index of cement rose by 9.95% in October compared to September, reflecting increased demand in the construction sector[18] Inflation and Price Trends - October CPI is expected to rise by approximately 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decline by around 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a convergence of inflation rates[3] - The average spot price of rebar increased by 9.37% in October compared to September, signaling a recovery in steel demand[16] Policy and Market Environment - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, while the European Central Bank may cut rates by 50 basis points in December, reflecting ongoing easing measures in major economies[4] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are being implemented, with a focus on adjusting existing mortgage rates and clarifying new monetary policies in November[4] Trade and Export Dynamics - South Korea's export growth slowed to -2.9% year-on-year in October, suggesting a potential decline in China's export growth as well[29] - The SCFI composite index decreased by 17.01% compared to September, indicating weakening freight rates that may benefit labor-intensive product exports[29] Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations[6]