宏观政策积极发力，增量政策将引领资产价格回暖

Economic Performance - In Q3, the macroeconomic growth rate recorded 4.6%, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% for the first three quarters[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, Q4 growth must reach 5.4%[1] - The overall economy remains in a weak recovery phase, indicating pressure on growth targets[1] Policy Adjustments - A series of new macro-control measures were introduced following the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, aimed at enhancing economic stability[2] - The policy shift has moved from cautious to comprehensive easing, focusing on three main goals: achieving around 5% economic growth, addressing real estate and debt issues, and promoting systemic reforms[2][3] Asset Prices Focus - The recent policies prioritize asset prices, particularly in real estate and capital markets, to break the negative cycle in the economy[3] - Financial asset prices are expected to rebound faster than other assets, potentially leading to a 2-3 month advance in economic recovery[3] Investment and Consumption - In September, retail sales grew by 3.2%, with significant increases in household appliances (20.5%) and communication equipment (12.3%) sales, indicating effective consumption stimulus policies[13] - The government plans to enhance fiscal support for consumption and investment, particularly in high-quality projects[14] Risks and Challenges - The speed of policy implementation may be hindered by ongoing real estate and local debt issues[15] - Potential increases in trade tariffs could create uncertainties that require stronger investment and consumption measures to counteract[15]