Zijin Mining(601899) 长城证券·2024-10-28 07:12Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by both volume and price increases, with significant contributions expected from new projects [1][10]. - The report highlights the company's robust resource reserves and excellent mining exploration capabilities, which are anticipated to support long-term stable development [10][11]. - The ongoing projects are expected to enhance metal production, further boosting the company's performance [9][10]. Financial Summary - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 270,329 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1%. The projected revenue for 2024E is 326,496 million yuan, reflecting an 11.3% growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022A was 20,042 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9%. The forecast for 2024E is 32,734 million yuan, indicating a substantial growth of 55.0% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024E is projected to be 23.0%, up from 19.2% in 2023A [1]. Production and Cost Metrics - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 54,265 kg of gold and 789,459 tons of copper, marking increases of 8.33% and 4.67% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The gross profit margin for the mining segment was 57.71% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 7.42 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Expenses - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 40.38% year-on-year to 36,109 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [4]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 25,424 million yuan, up 54.81% year-on-year [4]. Resource Reserves and Exploration - The company has significant copper and gold resources, with total copper resources amounting to 10,467 million tons and gold resources of 3,528 tons as of mid-2024 [8]. - Recent exploration successes include the discovery of additional copper and molybdenum resources at the Jilong Copper Mine, which is expected to enhance future production capabilities [6][8]. Project Development - Key ongoing projects include the Jilong Copper Mine expansion, which is expected to increase annual copper production significantly by 2026 [6][9]. - The acquisition of the Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana for $1 billion is anticipated to add substantial gold resources to the company's portfolio [7].